Cyprus: Where the EU, Russia, US, UK, NATO, Christians and Muslims all come together

Prior to 9/11, conflict on Cyprus between Greece (EU member) and Turkey (NATO ally) was widely considered a top 3 risk for global conflict. Since then, while the GWOT to US and to a lesser extent EU eyes off the prize, Turkish President Erdogan continued to consolidate power in Turkey, while antagonizing the west. As a reminder, Greece and Turkey most recently fought a war over Cyprus in 1974.

As a reminder, Cyprus is split w/Turkey controlling the northern portion

What is the dispute between Turkey and Greece/Cyprus?

Under Turkey’s definition of Exclusive Economic Zone, no islands, including Cyprus, may have full EEZ and are only entitled to a 12 nautical mile reduce EEZ (instead of usual 200nm entitlement). In turn, Turkey claims a portion south of Cyprus as its own which contains an offshore gas field. Cyprus and the international community do not acknowledge these claims.

The maps on the left depict the EEZ as defined by Turkey while the one on the right highlights the EEZ as defined by the UN.

In the past year, Turkey increased drilling activity west of Cyprus and continues to claim those natural resources should be shared between Turkish controlled Northern Cyprus and Greek-Cyprus. Additionally, the Government of Turkey signed an agreement with Libya in 1999 which created an EEZ from the Turkish southern coast to Libya’s north-east coast, ignoring the Greek island of Crete. Last month, Greece signed a deal with Egypt establishing a maritime zone between the two countries which would nullify the prior Turkish/Libyan agreement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53497741

Reaction from an admittedly distracted international community has called for increased dialogue - with the EU and Germany in particular emphasizing the need for talks. France has been more vocal in condemning Turkey’s actions while deploying a frigate and two fighter jets in the area alongside Greek fortresses.

Turkish Lira continues to new lows against USD under Erdogan

Going Forward

Turkish/Greece flare-ups are not new to long-time #geopolitical observers. What’s different now, is that Turkey is responding after 20+ years of increasingly authoritarian rule under Erdogan.

In that light, Erdogan is most likely leveraging Cyprus to trade for something else and distract his people from a poor economy (see Lira-Dollar chart above for example).

With the EU, Nato, Russia, US, & UK interests all directly involved, this continues to be a space to watch.